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Thursday 24 May 2012

China Opening Up Even More?

China Opening Up Even More?

It looks like hedge funds will soon jump over the Chinese hedge! Word around the hood is that China is looking to allow more foreign institutional investors to operate in the country.

But I guess the news comes as no surprise. After all, we've talked about how the Chinese government has taken other steps to open up its markets to foreigners. On top of that, China has been encouraging foreign investors and pension funds to directly trade in the country's stocks and bonds. However, hedge funds, known for carrying out aggressive investment strategies, have never been allowed to operate in the country.

Some say that the situation is about to change very soon though.

It was recently confirmed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that it is taking into consideration a proposal to issue more Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) licenses. These are granted to foreign investors who wish to trade yuan-denominated shares in China's mainland stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Other than that, a few more tweaks have been proposed to make the application process for QFII licenses more investor-friendly. If the government decides to push through with them, the move could pave the way for hedge funds to gain access to China.

It can't be denied that the qualification requirements for hedge funds are pretty strict. The criteria require that all institutions apart from banks and securities brokerages must have at least $5 billion worth of assets under management. Aside from that, firms must also have been running for at least five years.

But even those qualified under the CSRC's criteria also have a hard time getting their licenses as China has showed that it hasn't been so willing to issue them to hedge funds. For instance, a New York-based hedge fund called Och-Ziff Capital Management is still waiting for its QFII license which it applied for a few years back.

But as I said, all that could change under the new initiative, which promises to ease those qualification requirements and give other firms a fighting chance. For example, it was proposed that the $5 billion asset requirement be lowered which would allow smaller hedge funds to apply for their QFII licenses.

With that, a larger number of QFII-licensed firms would mean that industry watchdogs will widen their scope for monitoring and implementing regulations. This would be in line with their goals to professionalize the industry and to better facilitate capital flows in and out of the country.


So why is this important?

For one, allowing more hedge funds to operate in China could also translate to stronger demand for yuan-denominated assets and the Chinese yuan itself. As I have pointed out in my article about the approval of three Chinese banks' operations in the U.S., these recent moves by China could pave the way for more yuan flexibility down the road. Heck, it could even transform the yuan into a commonly-traded currency!

On top of that, the move could also even out the playing field and address the issue of global trade imbalances. Remember that with an undervalued currency, Chinese exporters enjoy an unfair trade advantage because their products are relatively lower compared to those of their counterparts.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. These proposals are still subject to the Chinese government's approval and hedge fund owners themselves might not be so open to the idea of additional regulation. Do you think that the QFII reforms could result in more yuan flexibility though? Let us know what you think by voting in our poll below!

FX Brokers Entering App Development

FX Brokers Entering App Development

                   It seems that even forex brokers are getting into the app craze! Not only are we seeing mobile apps hit our phones, but forex brokers and developers have actually begun their own FX app stores! Now these aren't exactly like the apps you see on your iOS or Android device, but more like "add-ons" to your desktop trading experience.

Let me introduce you to the two pioneers of the FX App scene: FXCM and ActForex!
FXCM App Store

As their website says, the FXCM Apps Store is a market place where FXCM clients can download programs to enhance their trading experience. It has a wide range of apps that cater to new traders, trend traders, and range traders.

FXCM divides its apps into three types: Metatrader 4, Trading Station Desktop, and Standalone.

Metatrader 4

Metatrader 4 apps are basically programs that work in conjunction with the MT4 trading platform. The Metatrader 4 section is further subdivided into three categories: Expert Advisors, scripts, and indicators.

Expert advisors are programs that automate trading strategies almost fully. Meanwhile, scripts are programs that enable you to accomplish multiple commands with a single click. Lastly, indicators are apps that illustrate market data in a graph or line to help you trade.

Trading Station Desktop

Trading Station Desktop is FXCM's homegrown trading platform. Like the Metatrader 4 section, it has three sections: automated strategies, indicators, and add-ons.

The automated strategies section is self-explanatory. The section contains apps that automate all or part of a trading strategy. The indicators section, as I mentioned, offers apps that display market data in a graph or line to help you make better trading decisions. The add-ons are apps that provide additional functionality to your charts. For instance, there's an app that changes your standard candlestick chart to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

Standalone Apps

Standalone apps are those that you can use on their own. You don't need another trading platform or charting program to use them. Standalone apps are divided into General Trading, Utilities, and Analysis/Reporting.

One example of a Standalone app is the Historical Data Downloader. As the name suggests, the app allows you to pull boats load of historical data, which could be especially useful for research or backtesting purposes.

ActForex FXApps

Meanwhile, ActForex just released FXApps, which they describe as "the store for traders to find the best content in apps and services."

Currently, ActForex's focus is on its white-labeling services. This means that ActForex allows other brokers and institutions to use its services and market it under their own brands for a fee. Interestingly though, ActForex allows its customers, regardless if it's a bank, introducing broker, hedge fund, or individual investor access to FXApps.

Furthermore, ActForex states that all of its FXApps products and services are customizable to fit their clients' specific needs.

Some examples of their apps are the EA Crossover Strategy, the Alligator Strategy, and DIBS Strategy. Pretty cool names!

I find it pretty interesting how these brokers are moving into the app development business. After all, there are already many third-party companies that offer services like up-to-date news releases and expert advisor creation.

However, I can't help but notice that aside from buying out smaller competitors, brokers are now also looking to grow their in-house development teams. This may lead to brokers buying out third-party development companies, or worse, forcing them out of the business altogether. Where will the competitive pricing come from then?

As users, we can only hope that this will lead to the proliferation of more innovative trading apps that we can use to customize and optimize our trading processes. And let's hope that brokers keep their apps at affordable prices, or free even (one can only hope, right?), to help out us little guys during these uncertain, recessionary times.

Forex order entry can be tricky

Forex order entry can be tricky, here's a live video of an order fill

                      My background is in stocks and futures and for a lot of you too, you're used to directing your own order flow. I've talked a lot about how I enter trades, my strategies my tools (like my GRab candles indicator and 34EMA Wave) but I want to shift gears here and show you where the rubber meets the road and that's order entry and understanding HOW your order gets filled.

            All the charthacking in the world - without the proper order entry plan - is never going to make any of your trading plans an actionable reality. And yet, it's often the order entry aspect of an entry or management that remains UNdiscussed. Let's tackle that now!

FX Brokers Entering App Development

FX Brokers Entering

               It seems that even forex brokers are getting into the app craze! Not only are we seeing mobile apps hit our phones, but forex brokers and developers have actually begun their own FX app stores! Now these aren't exactly like the apps you see on your iOS or Android device, but more like "add-ons" to your desktop trading experience.

Let me introduce you to the two pioneers of the FX App scene: FXCM and ActForex!
FXCM App Store

As their website says, the FXCM Apps Store is a market place where FXCM clients can download programs to enhance their trading experience. It has a wide range of apps that cater to new traders, trend traders, and range traders.

FXCM divides its apps into three types: Metatrader 4, Trading Station Desktop, and Standalone.

Metatrader 4

Metatrader 4 apps are basically programs that work in conjunction with the MT4 trading platform. The Metatrader 4 section is further subdivided into three categories: Expert Advisors, scripts, and indicators.

Expert advisors are programs that automate trading strategies almost fully. Meanwhile, scripts are programs that enable you to accomplish multiple commands with a single click. Lastly, indicators are apps that illustrate market data in a graph or line to help you trade.

Trading Station Desktop

Trading Station Desktop is FXCM's homegrown trading platform. Like the Metatrader 4 section, it has three sections: automated strategies, indicators, and add-ons.

The automated strategies section is self-explanatory. The section contains apps that automate all or part of a trading strategy. The indicators section, as I mentioned, offers apps that display market data in a graph or line to help you make better trading decisions. The add-ons are apps that provide additional functionality to your charts. For instance, there's an app that changes your standard candlestick chart to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

Standalone Apps

Standalone apps are those that you can use on their own. You don't need another trading platform or charting program to use them. Standalone apps are divided into General Trading, Utilities, and Analysis/Reporting.

One example of a Standalone app is the Historical Data Downloader. As the name suggests, the app allows you to pull boats load of historical data, which could be especially useful for research or backtesting purposes.

ActForex FXApps

Meanwhile, ActForex just released FXApps, which they describe as "the store for traders to find the best content in apps and services."

Currently, Act Forex's focus is on its white-labeling services. This means that Act Forex allows other brokers and institutions to use its services and market it under their own brands for a fee. Interestingly though, Act Forex allows its customers, regardless if it's a bank, introducing broker, hedge fund, or individual investor access to FX Apps.

Furthermore, Act Forex states that all of its FXApps products and services are customizable to fit their clients' specific needs.

Some examples of their apps are the EA Crossover Strategy, the Alligator Strategy, and DIBS Strategy. Pretty cool names!

I find it pretty interesting how these brokers are moving into the app development business. After all, there are already many third-party companies that offer services like up-to-date news releases and expert advisor creation.

However, I can't help but notice that aside from buying out smaller competitors, brokers are now also looking to grow their in-house development teams. This may lead to brokers buying out third-party development companies, or worse, forcing them out of the business altogether. Where will the competitive pricing come from then?

As users, we can only hope that this will lead to the proliferation of more innovative trading apps that we can use to customize and optimize our trading processes. And let's hope that brokers keep their apps at affordable prices, or free even (one can only hope, right?), to help out us little guys during these uncertain, recessionary times.


Cowabunga System Daily Update: Wednesday, 05/23/2012

Cowabunga System Daily Update: Wednesday, 05/23/2012

If this is your first time visiting this blog, read this first!

Main Trend 


Current Trend

The trend was DOWN the entire day.

Today I only looked for short trades.
News events to watch for today :

4:30am EST- UK Retail Sales; Minutes
10:00am EST- US FHFA House Price Index; New Home Sales

Today's Surf

12:45am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down and MACD was positive and losing value. This was a valid entry.

The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.5753 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 1.5762. Since I was only 3 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level and the same amount of pips I was risking on the trade was less than 10, I had to make a decision. Was this trade worth the entry. In this case where both target options are smaller than 10 pips, it is ok to sit the trade out. However, if you do decide to enter it is best to go for the next 50 or 00 level, which in this case was 1.5700.

Entry: Short at 1.5753 Stop: 1.5762 Target: 1.5700

2:30am EST- Unfortunately I was stopped out of my trade. (-9 pips)

3:00am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down and MACD was positive and losing value. This was a valid entry.

The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.5739 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 1.5763. Since I was 39 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my initial target at 1.5700.

Entry: Short at 1.5739 Stop: 1.5763 Target: 1.5700

4:15am EST- My target was hit. Since news was coming out, I was going to close my trade and grab as many pips as possible. I exited at 1.5695. (+44 pips)

Trade Result: -9 +44= +35 pips R-Multiple: -1.00; 1.83
News events to watch for Thursday:

4:30am EST- UK GDP; BBA Mortgage Approvals
8:30am EST- US Initial Claims; Durable Goods



Daily Chart Art - May 24, 2012

Daily Chart Art - May 24, 2012

 AUD/USD: 1-hour

Fibonacci fans, this setup is right up your alley! AUD/USD has been on a steep decline lately, making retracements the name of the game. If you're looking to hop on the short bandwagon, keep an eye out for that .9810 area. Not only was this a nice support level last week, but it also lines up with the 50.0% Fib! For now, just be patient and wait for the setup to materialize!

USD/CHF: Weekly

Next up is this long-term setup on USD/CHF! And by long-term, I'm talking about the weekly chart fellas! USD/CHF is now approaching the .9580 level, acted as a support-turned-resistance level in the past. If we see a reversal candlestick form just under .9580, it might be time to start loading up on some short positions. On the flip side, if we see a a strong bullish candle close solidly above the resistance level, it might be a sign that USD/CHF is headed back to parity!


USD/JPY: 4-hour


Lastly, here's one for my brotha-from-anotha-motha, Pipcrawler. USD/JPY has been trading within a descending channel recently and is now chillin' right smack in the middle of no-man's land. I suggest waiting for this pair to either retest resistance at around 79.70 or support at 78.30 before putting up any positions on this pair. Don't wanna get burned now do we?

Before you get carried away with all these chart patterns, remember that technical analysis is only half the story.

To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis.

Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.



Giving EUR/USD Another Shot

Giving EUR/USD (Another Shot)

I'm giving EUR/USD another shot today. But hopefully, unlike my trade idea last week, I won't miss the move with this day trade setup.

On the 15-minute chart, we see that the pair is just consolidating between 1.2600 and 1.2550. In fact, you can even say that there is a bearish pennant in the making. I learned from the awesome School of Pipsology that this chart pattern usually signals that the pair is about to breakout lower so I will wait for price to pierce through the support at the rising trend line.

I think selling around 1.2550 and aiming for the 1.2500 handle with a 50-pip stop is a good idea. But as usual, I won't pull the trigger nor will I set an order until I see the fundamentals align with my trade idea.

Since this is a day trade, I'm mostly concerned with the economic reports coming out rather than the entire macroeconomic picture. Specifically, I'm keeping a close eye on the purchasing managers' indices that are scheduled to come out later. If those reports fail to meet expectations, I suspect the euro will get sold-off again.

With that said, here's my game plan:

Short EUR/USD at market when PMIs come in worse than expected, stop loss at 1.2605, profit target yet to be determined.