USD/JPY for a Position Play

USD/JPY for a Position Play

Good morning! For my trade idea this week, I like a technical setup on the USD/JPY daily that may be supported by another potential monetary policy event from the Bank of Japan. Is it time to sell Japanese Yen again?

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Technically, the pair is at the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the strong move we saw starting back in February. Also, we see a divergence between price action and the stochastic indicator, hinting on a potential reversal to the upside. But that's only part of the reason why I like a long trade on USD/JPY...

There's a lot going on with the Land of the Rising Sun and its currency recently, which may setup another big move depending on what we see from the Bank of Japan meeting this week.

This week is the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy meeting and statement (Approx. at 1:00 GMT on 5/23). As usual, no one is expecting a change in overnight rates (which can't get much lower than its current 0.10% rate) but the question that could spark a big move is will we see an increase in stimulus? Most analysts don't predict a change this week, but we could see something new in their July meeting. So, the likely hood of a strong move looks to be a low probability and possibly priced in at this point. But what if the BOJ does something unconventional once again?

Back on February 14, 2012, the BOJ recognized that more cash by itself wasn't doing the job, so not only did they throw 10T Japanese Yen in asset purchases at the market, but it also adjusted its inflation target to 1.0%. These surprise actions sparked the strong directional move that we see on the daily chart above, where USD/JPY topped out around 84.00--a huge 10% move!

The global environment has turned extremely negative in recent weeks (Grexit, weakening US and China data, and the list goes on and on), pushing capital out of "risk-on" assets and back into "risk-off" assets like Japanese bonds and the Yen. This has caused the Yen to rise to levels that make it extremely difficult for Japanese businesses to be globally competitive, and I'm sure by now the BOJ is getting pressured by Japan's top business leaders to do something about it. This situation, coupled with the recent development that a Grexit is near (possibly sparking contagion), could lead to an unexpected, unconventional move from the BOJ very soon.

What that move could be, I don't know, but I do know if we do see it, it could mean another big sell off for the Japanese Yen. If we don't see an unconventional move, the pair will likely drift lower in line with the current risk-off sentiment. Based on those two scenarios, the risk-to-reward for going long USD/JPY looks attractive to me, so here's what I am going to do:

Long USD/JPY at market (79.40), stop at 78.10, profit target at 84.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Risk Disclosure.

This trade setup targets the previous top as I don't think we'll see another 10% rip higher, but it gives me around a 3.5:1 potential return-on-risk which is still very attractive. Of course, with so many different issues around the globe, sentiment can shift on a dime, so be sure to follow our Forex calendar for important upcoming events for both currencies.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates and adjustments in case I see the BOJ event play out differently than I think it will. Good luck, good trading and thanks for checking out my blog!