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Thursday 24 May 2012

China Opening Up Even More?

China Opening Up Even More?

It looks like hedge funds will soon jump over the Chinese hedge! Word around the hood is that China is looking to allow more foreign institutional investors to operate in the country.

But I guess the news comes as no surprise. After all, we've talked about how the Chinese government has taken other steps to open up its markets to foreigners. On top of that, China has been encouraging foreign investors and pension funds to directly trade in the country's stocks and bonds. However, hedge funds, known for carrying out aggressive investment strategies, have never been allowed to operate in the country.

Some say that the situation is about to change very soon though.

It was recently confirmed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that it is taking into consideration a proposal to issue more Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) licenses. These are granted to foreign investors who wish to trade yuan-denominated shares in China's mainland stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Other than that, a few more tweaks have been proposed to make the application process for QFII licenses more investor-friendly. If the government decides to push through with them, the move could pave the way for hedge funds to gain access to China.

It can't be denied that the qualification requirements for hedge funds are pretty strict. The criteria require that all institutions apart from banks and securities brokerages must have at least $5 billion worth of assets under management. Aside from that, firms must also have been running for at least five years.

But even those qualified under the CSRC's criteria also have a hard time getting their licenses as China has showed that it hasn't been so willing to issue them to hedge funds. For instance, a New York-based hedge fund called Och-Ziff Capital Management is still waiting for its QFII license which it applied for a few years back.

But as I said, all that could change under the new initiative, which promises to ease those qualification requirements and give other firms a fighting chance. For example, it was proposed that the $5 billion asset requirement be lowered which would allow smaller hedge funds to apply for their QFII licenses.

With that, a larger number of QFII-licensed firms would mean that industry watchdogs will widen their scope for monitoring and implementing regulations. This would be in line with their goals to professionalize the industry and to better facilitate capital flows in and out of the country.


So why is this important?

For one, allowing more hedge funds to operate in China could also translate to stronger demand for yuan-denominated assets and the Chinese yuan itself. As I have pointed out in my article about the approval of three Chinese banks' operations in the U.S., these recent moves by China could pave the way for more yuan flexibility down the road. Heck, it could even transform the yuan into a commonly-traded currency!

On top of that, the move could also even out the playing field and address the issue of global trade imbalances. Remember that with an undervalued currency, Chinese exporters enjoy an unfair trade advantage because their products are relatively lower compared to those of their counterparts.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. These proposals are still subject to the Chinese government's approval and hedge fund owners themselves might not be so open to the idea of additional regulation. Do you think that the QFII reforms could result in more yuan flexibility though? Let us know what you think by voting in our poll below!

FX Brokers Entering App Development

FX Brokers Entering App Development

                   It seems that even forex brokers are getting into the app craze! Not only are we seeing mobile apps hit our phones, but forex brokers and developers have actually begun their own FX app stores! Now these aren't exactly like the apps you see on your iOS or Android device, but more like "add-ons" to your desktop trading experience.

Let me introduce you to the two pioneers of the FX App scene: FXCM and ActForex!
FXCM App Store

As their website says, the FXCM Apps Store is a market place where FXCM clients can download programs to enhance their trading experience. It has a wide range of apps that cater to new traders, trend traders, and range traders.

FXCM divides its apps into three types: Metatrader 4, Trading Station Desktop, and Standalone.

Metatrader 4

Metatrader 4 apps are basically programs that work in conjunction with the MT4 trading platform. The Metatrader 4 section is further subdivided into three categories: Expert Advisors, scripts, and indicators.

Expert advisors are programs that automate trading strategies almost fully. Meanwhile, scripts are programs that enable you to accomplish multiple commands with a single click. Lastly, indicators are apps that illustrate market data in a graph or line to help you trade.

Trading Station Desktop

Trading Station Desktop is FXCM's homegrown trading platform. Like the Metatrader 4 section, it has three sections: automated strategies, indicators, and add-ons.

The automated strategies section is self-explanatory. The section contains apps that automate all or part of a trading strategy. The indicators section, as I mentioned, offers apps that display market data in a graph or line to help you make better trading decisions. The add-ons are apps that provide additional functionality to your charts. For instance, there's an app that changes your standard candlestick chart to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

Standalone Apps

Standalone apps are those that you can use on their own. You don't need another trading platform or charting program to use them. Standalone apps are divided into General Trading, Utilities, and Analysis/Reporting.

One example of a Standalone app is the Historical Data Downloader. As the name suggests, the app allows you to pull boats load of historical data, which could be especially useful for research or backtesting purposes.

ActForex FXApps

Meanwhile, ActForex just released FXApps, which they describe as "the store for traders to find the best content in apps and services."

Currently, ActForex's focus is on its white-labeling services. This means that ActForex allows other brokers and institutions to use its services and market it under their own brands for a fee. Interestingly though, ActForex allows its customers, regardless if it's a bank, introducing broker, hedge fund, or individual investor access to FXApps.

Furthermore, ActForex states that all of its FXApps products and services are customizable to fit their clients' specific needs.

Some examples of their apps are the EA Crossover Strategy, the Alligator Strategy, and DIBS Strategy. Pretty cool names!

I find it pretty interesting how these brokers are moving into the app development business. After all, there are already many third-party companies that offer services like up-to-date news releases and expert advisor creation.

However, I can't help but notice that aside from buying out smaller competitors, brokers are now also looking to grow their in-house development teams. This may lead to brokers buying out third-party development companies, or worse, forcing them out of the business altogether. Where will the competitive pricing come from then?

As users, we can only hope that this will lead to the proliferation of more innovative trading apps that we can use to customize and optimize our trading processes. And let's hope that brokers keep their apps at affordable prices, or free even (one can only hope, right?), to help out us little guys during these uncertain, recessionary times.

Forex order entry can be tricky

Forex order entry can be tricky, here's a live video of an order fill

                      My background is in stocks and futures and for a lot of you too, you're used to directing your own order flow. I've talked a lot about how I enter trades, my strategies my tools (like my GRab candles indicator and 34EMA Wave) but I want to shift gears here and show you where the rubber meets the road and that's order entry and understanding HOW your order gets filled.

            All the charthacking in the world - without the proper order entry plan - is never going to make any of your trading plans an actionable reality. And yet, it's often the order entry aspect of an entry or management that remains UNdiscussed. Let's tackle that now!

FX Brokers Entering App Development

FX Brokers Entering

               It seems that even forex brokers are getting into the app craze! Not only are we seeing mobile apps hit our phones, but forex brokers and developers have actually begun their own FX app stores! Now these aren't exactly like the apps you see on your iOS or Android device, but more like "add-ons" to your desktop trading experience.

Let me introduce you to the two pioneers of the FX App scene: FXCM and ActForex!
FXCM App Store

As their website says, the FXCM Apps Store is a market place where FXCM clients can download programs to enhance their trading experience. It has a wide range of apps that cater to new traders, trend traders, and range traders.

FXCM divides its apps into three types: Metatrader 4, Trading Station Desktop, and Standalone.

Metatrader 4

Metatrader 4 apps are basically programs that work in conjunction with the MT4 trading platform. The Metatrader 4 section is further subdivided into three categories: Expert Advisors, scripts, and indicators.

Expert advisors are programs that automate trading strategies almost fully. Meanwhile, scripts are programs that enable you to accomplish multiple commands with a single click. Lastly, indicators are apps that illustrate market data in a graph or line to help you trade.

Trading Station Desktop

Trading Station Desktop is FXCM's homegrown trading platform. Like the Metatrader 4 section, it has three sections: automated strategies, indicators, and add-ons.

The automated strategies section is self-explanatory. The section contains apps that automate all or part of a trading strategy. The indicators section, as I mentioned, offers apps that display market data in a graph or line to help you make better trading decisions. The add-ons are apps that provide additional functionality to your charts. For instance, there's an app that changes your standard candlestick chart to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

Standalone Apps

Standalone apps are those that you can use on their own. You don't need another trading platform or charting program to use them. Standalone apps are divided into General Trading, Utilities, and Analysis/Reporting.

One example of a Standalone app is the Historical Data Downloader. As the name suggests, the app allows you to pull boats load of historical data, which could be especially useful for research or backtesting purposes.

ActForex FXApps

Meanwhile, ActForex just released FXApps, which they describe as "the store for traders to find the best content in apps and services."

Currently, Act Forex's focus is on its white-labeling services. This means that Act Forex allows other brokers and institutions to use its services and market it under their own brands for a fee. Interestingly though, Act Forex allows its customers, regardless if it's a bank, introducing broker, hedge fund, or individual investor access to FX Apps.

Furthermore, Act Forex states that all of its FXApps products and services are customizable to fit their clients' specific needs.

Some examples of their apps are the EA Crossover Strategy, the Alligator Strategy, and DIBS Strategy. Pretty cool names!

I find it pretty interesting how these brokers are moving into the app development business. After all, there are already many third-party companies that offer services like up-to-date news releases and expert advisor creation.

However, I can't help but notice that aside from buying out smaller competitors, brokers are now also looking to grow their in-house development teams. This may lead to brokers buying out third-party development companies, or worse, forcing them out of the business altogether. Where will the competitive pricing come from then?

As users, we can only hope that this will lead to the proliferation of more innovative trading apps that we can use to customize and optimize our trading processes. And let's hope that brokers keep their apps at affordable prices, or free even (one can only hope, right?), to help out us little guys during these uncertain, recessionary times.


Cowabunga System Daily Update: Wednesday, 05/23/2012

Cowabunga System Daily Update: Wednesday, 05/23/2012

If this is your first time visiting this blog, read this first!

Main Trend 


Current Trend

The trend was DOWN the entire day.

Today I only looked for short trades.
News events to watch for today :

4:30am EST- UK Retail Sales; Minutes
10:00am EST- US FHFA House Price Index; New Home Sales

Today's Surf

12:45am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down and MACD was positive and losing value. This was a valid entry.

The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.5753 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 1.5762. Since I was only 3 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level and the same amount of pips I was risking on the trade was less than 10, I had to make a decision. Was this trade worth the entry. In this case where both target options are smaller than 10 pips, it is ok to sit the trade out. However, if you do decide to enter it is best to go for the next 50 or 00 level, which in this case was 1.5700.

Entry: Short at 1.5753 Stop: 1.5762 Target: 1.5700

2:30am EST- Unfortunately I was stopped out of my trade. (-9 pips)

3:00am EST- There was a moving average crossover for a short trade. RSI was less than 50, stochastics were trending down and MACD was positive and losing value. This was a valid entry.

The entry was at the close of the candle at 1.5739 with a stop at the most recent swing high at 1.5763. Since I was 39 pips away from the nearest 50 or 00 level, I decided to put my initial target at 1.5700.

Entry: Short at 1.5739 Stop: 1.5763 Target: 1.5700

4:15am EST- My target was hit. Since news was coming out, I was going to close my trade and grab as many pips as possible. I exited at 1.5695. (+44 pips)

Trade Result: -9 +44= +35 pips R-Multiple: -1.00; 1.83
News events to watch for Thursday:

4:30am EST- UK GDP; BBA Mortgage Approvals
8:30am EST- US Initial Claims; Durable Goods



Daily Chart Art - May 24, 2012

Daily Chart Art - May 24, 2012

 AUD/USD: 1-hour

Fibonacci fans, this setup is right up your alley! AUD/USD has been on a steep decline lately, making retracements the name of the game. If you're looking to hop on the short bandwagon, keep an eye out for that .9810 area. Not only was this a nice support level last week, but it also lines up with the 50.0% Fib! For now, just be patient and wait for the setup to materialize!

USD/CHF: Weekly

Next up is this long-term setup on USD/CHF! And by long-term, I'm talking about the weekly chart fellas! USD/CHF is now approaching the .9580 level, acted as a support-turned-resistance level in the past. If we see a reversal candlestick form just under .9580, it might be time to start loading up on some short positions. On the flip side, if we see a a strong bullish candle close solidly above the resistance level, it might be a sign that USD/CHF is headed back to parity!


USD/JPY: 4-hour


Lastly, here's one for my brotha-from-anotha-motha, Pipcrawler. USD/JPY has been trading within a descending channel recently and is now chillin' right smack in the middle of no-man's land. I suggest waiting for this pair to either retest resistance at around 79.70 or support at 78.30 before putting up any positions on this pair. Don't wanna get burned now do we?

Before you get carried away with all these chart patterns, remember that technical analysis is only half the story.

To get the complete picture and avoid getting blindsided by economic data, you also have to do your fundamental analysis.

Lucky for us, Pip Diddy fills us in on what we need to know about fundamentals with his Daily Forex Fundamentals.



Giving EUR/USD Another Shot

Giving EUR/USD (Another Shot)

I'm giving EUR/USD another shot today. But hopefully, unlike my trade idea last week, I won't miss the move with this day trade setup.

On the 15-minute chart, we see that the pair is just consolidating between 1.2600 and 1.2550. In fact, you can even say that there is a bearish pennant in the making. I learned from the awesome School of Pipsology that this chart pattern usually signals that the pair is about to breakout lower so I will wait for price to pierce through the support at the rising trend line.

I think selling around 1.2550 and aiming for the 1.2500 handle with a 50-pip stop is a good idea. But as usual, I won't pull the trigger nor will I set an order until I see the fundamentals align with my trade idea.

Since this is a day trade, I'm mostly concerned with the economic reports coming out rather than the entire macroeconomic picture. Specifically, I'm keeping a close eye on the purchasing managers' indices that are scheduled to come out later. If those reports fail to meet expectations, I suspect the euro will get sold-off again.

With that said, here's my game plan:

Short EUR/USD at market when PMIs come in worse than expected, stop loss at 1.2605, profit target yet to be determined.


Tuesday 22 May 2012

Daily Forex Fundamentals - May 22, 2012

Daily Forex Fundamentals - May 22, 2012

U.S. Dollar (USD)

It looks like the dollar had the Monday blues yesterday. With the market's newfound appetite for risk, the currency was shrugged off as traders sought higher-yielding currencies. EUR/USD ended Monday's trading 33 pips higher while AUD/USD closed 79 pips above its opening price at .9916.

Euro (EUR)

Thanks to a little bit of market optimism from the G8 meetings over the weekend, the euro was able to continue rebounding and post another winning day against the safe haven dollar. EUR/USD closed out the day at 1.2816, 33 pips higher from its opening price during the Asian session.

British Pound (GBP)

The pound edged higher against its counterparts for the second day in a row yesterday despite the lack of economic data from the U.K. Cable capped the day 59 pips from its intraday low, while Guppy rose by another 39 pips to 125.61. Here's what's ahead for the pound.

Japanese Yen (JPY)

In the same way that ice cream doesn't go well with vinegar, the yen also doesn't fare well when risk appetite is in play. Just take a look at its performance yesterday. It scored losses against all of its major counterparts, giving up 22 pips to the dollar, 54 pips to the euro, and 40 pips to the pound.

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

For the first time in six days, the Loonie was able to get one-up on the safe haven Greenback. After opening the day at 1.0224, USD/CAD was sold-off throughout the day, allowing the pair to close the U.S. trading session 54 pips lower at 1.0170.

Australian Dollar (AUD)

Aaah, there's nothin' like good ol' risk appetite to get traders to drool over the Aussie like ice cold beer on a hot summer day. AUD/USD rallied yesterday after opening at .9837 and ended the day up at .9916.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD)

Now that's how you stage a comeback! After dropping by 101 pips last Friday, NZD/USD bounced back up with a vengeance and ended the day 90 pips higher than its open price. Boo yeah!

Swiss Franc (CHF)

Despite the overall risk appetite that ruled the markets yesterday, the low-yielding franc posted gains against its major counterparts. In fact, USD/CHF fell by another 22 pips to .9368 while GBP/CHF also dropped by 32 pips.

Swiss economic data might have also boosted the franc as the SECO consumer climate data showed that consumers aren’t as pessimistic last quarter than they were in the last quarter of 2011. The index figure came in at -8, which is a lot better than the -19 figure that we saw in three months ago. Remember that a reading above 0.0 indicated optimism.

No Swiss data is scheduled for release today, so you might want to keep close tabs on risk sentiment. Who knows, you might find a decent risk-related trade among the franc pairs!


Waiting For Break of Trend Line on EUR/AUD - Orders Cancelled

Waiting For Break of Trend Line on EUR/AUD - Orders Cancelled

Orders Cancelled: 2012-05-22 02:30

What an unpredictable thing these markets are, eh? They're just like Pipcrawler's bowel movements!

You'd think that since last week's run of risk aversion was brought about by problems in the euro zone, we'd see the euro take a huge hit across the boards. But as it turns out, the Aussie was even weaker than the euro!


Even with a spike in bond yields triggering another euro sell-off last Thursday, it still turned out to be more resilient than the Aussie. So when EUR/AUD came knocking on the door of the rising trend line that I pointed out, guess who answered? Euro bulls!
They found support at the 1.2785 area of interest, and though sellers were able to make it a few pips below this level, buyers eventually prevailed and took the pair to new heights. I'm talking 200 pips higher to 1.3000, man!
Naturally, I closed my orders once I saw that price had turned and the uptrend had stayed intact. So right now, I'm back on the sidelines looking for a trade to take.
No worries though, as I think now's a great time to take some time to reflect on current market conditions anyway. Are we seeing a legit reversal? Or is this just a temporary pullback on profit-taking? Those are just some of the questions that are buggin' this big head of mine.
In any case, if you have any trade suggestions, please help a monster out and feel throw them my way! Thanks fellas

Trade Idea: 12-05-16 03:52



One reason why I love trading the cross-currency pairs is because it gives me plenty of trading opportunities to choose from! If I have a short euro bias, I'm not forced to stick to just EUR/JPY - I can choose to go short on other euro pairs as long as a valid setup emerges!
Why am I bearish on the euro? Well, as I said in my last EUR/JPY trade, it's all about politics right now baby!
The big news in the market right now is that our buddies over at Greece can't just get along. Because the New Democracy, Syriza, and Socialist parties couldn't form a coalition government, the Greek government decided that they would be better off having another election in June.
This puts Greece in a rather dangerous situation, as the country won't be able to receive any bailout funds from the EU and IMF. Take note that Greece has no more moolah in its vaults and without aid, it will run out of money by July.

As expected, this has been taking its toll on the euro, which is why the shared currency has struggled against other major currencies.
This brings me to my trade setup on EUR/AUD.
The pair has been respecting a long-term rising trend line for quite some time now, but seeing as how the outlook for the euro is looking rather dim, I have a feeling that the trend line could break soon.
For now, I'm going to be patient and wait for a BREAK of the trend line before establishing my short position. I think if price breaks below the recent support level at 1.2785, we could see a smooth ride back down to the former area of interest around 1.2600.

Here's my master plan:

Sell stop order at 1.2760, stop loss at 1.2830, take profit at 1.2600.
I think this should give my trade ample breathing space should we see any choppy moves. Also, I think my profit target is well-placed, and if it gets hit, this trade will give me a sweet reward-to-risk ratio of just over 2:1. Lastly, I'll be risking 0.50% of my account on this trade.
You fellas willing to join me on this trade?

USD/JPY for a Position Play

USD/JPY for a Position Play

Good morning! For my trade idea this week, I like a technical setup on the USD/JPY daily that may be supported by another potential monetary policy event from the Bank of Japan. Is it time to sell Japanese Yen again?

Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.

Technically, the pair is at the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the strong move we saw starting back in February. Also, we see a divergence between price action and the stochastic indicator, hinting on a potential reversal to the upside. But that's only part of the reason why I like a long trade on USD/JPY...

There's a lot going on with the Land of the Rising Sun and its currency recently, which may setup another big move depending on what we see from the Bank of Japan meeting this week.

This week is the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy meeting and statement (Approx. at 1:00 GMT on 5/23). As usual, no one is expecting a change in overnight rates (which can't get much lower than its current 0.10% rate) but the question that could spark a big move is will we see an increase in stimulus? Most analysts don't predict a change this week, but we could see something new in their July meeting. So, the likely hood of a strong move looks to be a low probability and possibly priced in at this point. But what if the BOJ does something unconventional once again?

Back on February 14, 2012, the BOJ recognized that more cash by itself wasn't doing the job, so not only did they throw 10T Japanese Yen in asset purchases at the market, but it also adjusted its inflation target to 1.0%. These surprise actions sparked the strong directional move that we see on the daily chart above, where USD/JPY topped out around 84.00--a huge 10% move!

The global environment has turned extremely negative in recent weeks (Grexit, weakening US and China data, and the list goes on and on), pushing capital out of "risk-on" assets and back into "risk-off" assets like Japanese bonds and the Yen. This has caused the Yen to rise to levels that make it extremely difficult for Japanese businesses to be globally competitive, and I'm sure by now the BOJ is getting pressured by Japan's top business leaders to do something about it. This situation, coupled with the recent development that a Grexit is near (possibly sparking contagion), could lead to an unexpected, unconventional move from the BOJ very soon.

What that move could be, I don't know, but I do know if we do see it, it could mean another big sell off for the Japanese Yen. If we don't see an unconventional move, the pair will likely drift lower in line with the current risk-off sentiment. Based on those two scenarios, the risk-to-reward for going long USD/JPY looks attractive to me, so here's what I am going to do:

Long USD/JPY at market (79.40), stop at 78.10, profit target at 84.00

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Risk Disclosure.

This trade setup targets the previous top as I don't think we'll see another 10% rip higher, but it gives me around a 3.5:1 potential return-on-risk which is still very attractive. Of course, with so many different issues around the globe, sentiment can shift on a dime, so be sure to follow our Forex calendar for important upcoming events for both currencies.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates and adjustments in case I see the BOJ event play out differently than I think it will. Good luck, good trading and thanks for checking out my blog!


Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering

Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering

Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering
Euro Rebounds Against Safe Havens as Shorts Take a Breather
British Pound Traders Wonder Whether Rate Outlook Enough to Sell On
Australian Dollar Distracted by Risk Bounce, Rate Outlook Could Sabotage
Japanese Yen Drops Across the Board as Risk Appetite Buoys Carry
New Zealand Dollar Traders Sensitive to Rate Forecast, Watch 2Q CPI Forecast
Gold Rebound Stalls Despite Further Dollar Correction


Dollar Run May Collapse without Market-Wide Fear Mongering

                  Following two weeks of impressive climb, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is finally taking a breather. Yet, this pause can prove more painful for the dollar and productive for risk-based assets than the recent reduction in volatility would suggest. Consolidation alone could encourage profit taking on short risk speculative interest and thereby leverage some pace on a correction. Escalating the situation even further, if speculators read the recent pullback as a good place to buy risk cheap, a temporary break could turn into a full-blown reversal. Technical traders no doubt recognize the potential on the Dollar Index itself. A head-and-shoulders index has been carved out of the past three trading days – a high-risk reversal pattern with the 10,080 range high over the 16-month standing as an immediate make-or-break level. The same pressure is read in many of the dollar-based majors. EURUSD has reversed around the same level as January’s swing low while NZDUSD marked a very obvious reversal from a multi-year trendline. Meanwhile, GBPUSD and AUDUSD have been more restrained but are ready to turn.

                             Most trends have a rest period. The difficulty is first in discerning whether it is a temporary correction or possibly a true trend reversal, and second how long the detour lasts. Despite the fact that the Dollar Index is fresh off its break to 16-month highs, follow through is not immediately guaranteed. Considering the dollar delivers negative real rates of return (inflation outpaces the yield on assets) on US Treasury and money market assets, the dollar’s dependency on fear and liquidity demand must be leveraged. Therefore, we should monitor benchmarks for risk trends (US equity indexes) and the level of panic behind sentiment shifts (implied volatility).
                       While the S&P 500 put in for a sharp advance through Monday’s session, the dollar’s slide was relatively restrained. Feeding a consistent bull trend is a tall task for the greenback as it speaks to deteriorating, global financial conditions. Alternatively, a period of stability could encourage funds away from a currency that yield no return.

Euro Rebounds Against Safe Havens as Shorts Take a Breather

We could take an easy measure of the Euro’s health through the opening 24 hours by gauging how the currency performed against the investment and safe haven currencies. Against the dollar and Japanese yen, the euro managed to recover lost ground. Meanwhile, the comm bloc (the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars) gained traction against the world’s number two reserve currency. This tells us a lot about the market’s fundamental assessment of the euro. Monday’s performance was not the result of a distinct improvement in the outlook for the region’s financial situation, growth or yield. If that were the case, the euro would have shown progress against the higher yielding alternatives. Instead, the currency found relief in the tempered fears of the masses. Looking to the headlines, a lack of inherent drive was reasonable. A lot of attention was paid to French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici’s remark that France would bring a call for Eurozone bonds at Wednesday’s meeting, but that policy has been rejected consistently. In the upcoming session, we have Spanish and EFSF bond auctions.

British Pound Traders Wonder Whether Rate Outlook Enough to Sell On

We have seen a significant back and forth from the sterling these past few months, and it isn’t a coincidence that the swings coincide neatly to the ebb and flow of interest rate expectations. Perhaps in an effort to prevent speculation around monetary policy, the BoE is traditionally mum about its assessment and expectations at official meetings. That leverages the impact that more vocal members have on price and yield changes. One of the most opinionated members, BoE member Posen, offered further opinion to his recent return to dovish territory when he called on Europe to intervene “more robustly” on the financial crisis. A shift back into the dovish column would hurt a currency that is otherwise very neutral. That is why we should be concerned about the upcoming exit for the BoE’s King, Posen and Bean. Will we be more or less dovish?

Australian Dollar Distracted by Risk Bounce, Rate Outlook Could Sabotage

Interest rate expectations dropped sharply through the end of last week – a rate outlook that was mirrored in actual rates when the 10-year Australian government bond yield gapped below 3.20 percent. Yet, despite plunging these lows (the current rate puts the Aussie yield at a notable discount to its New Zealand counterpart) and the fact that FX market volatility is just off its high for the year (currently 11.1 percent), the recent rebound in underlying risk appetite and Chinese Premier Wen Jaibao’s commitment to his nation’s growth helps balance things out. This is a tenuous balance, but we must keep a close eye on risk, yield outlook and perceived Chinese strength. Risk has the greatest variability.

Japanese Yen Drops Across the Board as Risk Appetite Buoys Carry

A bounce in risk appetite has a clear impact on the yen crosses. A rise in the appreciation of yield over the threat of loss due to volatility tips and the market shorts the yen to build carry positions. Recently, the Japanese currency has further leveraged its position as an optimal funding currency in the carry trade with the benchmark 10-year JGB (government bond) yield plunging over 20 percent in the span of two months. The upcoming BoJ rate decision could further that press with a commitment to more stimulus. That is a conversation for tomorrow.

New Zealand Dollar Traders Sensitive to Rate Forecast, Watch 2Q CPI Forecast

On the carry currency hierarchy, the New Zealand dollar has soundly outpaced its Aussie and Canadian counterparts on the rebound in risk trends. This performance comes from a mixture of its competitive rate of return (besting both the AUD and CAD) as well as the relative strength of its rate forecast (a mile better than the RBA). That said, the negative rate outlook is solidifying with the market pricing in a 70 percent chance of a 25bp cut at the next RBNZ meeting and 39bps worth of cuts over 12 months. The upcoming 2 year inflation outlook should weigh in here.

Gold Rebound Stalls Despite Further Dollar Correction

The dollar’s retreat continued Monday, yet gold’s advance stalled. The precious metal was essentially unchanged through the past trading session follow two remarkable advances. Now holding just below 1600, gold traders are left to wonder what is required to leverage their favored asset to greater heights. If we want to make easily clear resistance, a solid dollar tumble (Dollar Index below 10,080) would be the most efficient means. However, in the absence of this indirect bid, we need to watch inflation and anti-euro sentiment more closely.

Euro Rallies Towards 1.3000 Viewed As Formidable Sell Opportunity

Euro Rallies Towards 1.3000 Viewed As Formidable Sell Opportunity

Markets finding support; but bounce more technical than fundamental
Germany and France give risk supportive comments
Looking to sell EUR/USD towards 1.3000 previous support zone

Risk correlated assets have managed a modest recovery in the early week, although the bounce is likely more attributed to a technical correction than anything truly fundamental. We have seen some optimism on the news of Germany and France saying they want to see Greece remain in the Eurozone, however, this is hardly the type of fundamental catalyst that would help to inspire legitimate bids. As such, we continue to recommend proceeding with caution. Our best strategy from here would be to look to sell the Euro on an additional jump to 1.3000 which now acts as solid previous support turned resistance.


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD:The market remains under intense pressure and the focus for now is squarely on a retest of the 2012 lows from January at 1.2625. While we would not rule out a possibility of a test of this level over the coming sessions, short-term technical studies are correcting from oversold and are showing a need for some form of a corrective bounce from where a fresh lower top is sought out. Ultimately however, any rallies should now be very well capped by previous support turned resistance at 1.3000 in favor of additional weakness over the medium-term that projects deeper setbacks into the lower 1.2000's.


USD/JPY:The market continues to consolidate around 80.00 and is in the process of looking for a medium-term higher low ahead of the next major upside extension back above the yearly highs at 84.20 and towards 90.00 further up. However, for the time being it remains in question whether the market will still head lower towards the 200-Day SMA by 78.50 before ultimately reversing higher. The key level to watch above comes in by 80.60, and a break and close above this level will officially alleviate downside pressures and suggest that a higher low has now been carved in the 79.00's.



GBP/USD:The market remains under intense pressure since breaking back below 1.6000 and setbacks could now extend towards next key support in he 1.5600 area over the coming sessions. Still, daily studies are now stretched and we would prefer looking to sell into rallies towards 1.6000 where a fresh lower top is sought out.



USD/CHF:Overall the structure remains highly constructive and we continue to project additional upside over the coming months back above parity. For now, the latest break and close above 0.9335 is expected to accelerate gains for a retest of the yearly highs by 0.9600, while any intraday pullbacks should be very well supported ahead of 0.9200. Ultimately, only back under 0.9000 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.


Forex Trading News

Forex Trading News

 News in Forex trading is very important. It doesn't matter what your Forex trading strategy is; you can benefit from keeping up-to-date with all the latest news that is relevant to the currency pair (or pairs) that you are trading, regardless of the strategy you use when trading currencies.

                      Every Forex trader should conduct fundamental analysis, even if they prefer and are better at conducting technical analysis. Both of the main types of analysis in currency trading compliment each other and if you only carry out one type of analysis, you are essentially trading currencies half-blind.
Fundamental analysis is just as important as technical analysis.

               Even if you aren't keen on fundamentals, you should still carry some fundamental Forex trading analysis out no matter what, because it doesn't have to be difficult nor does it have to be time-consuming. By just checking up on the news, you are technically carrying out fundamental analysis. As long as you interpret the news well and take it into account when trading your currency pairs, you will stand much more of a chance of succeeding and making profits, in the Forex market.
Forex trading news is one of the most important parts of fundamental analysis, when trading currencies. Remember, you don't have to buy a newspaper or signup to a paid newsletter subscription in order to get the information you need; there are plenty of online news mediums available to you. The majority of online news sites are completely free and are updated very promptly, allowing you to keep up-to-date with all news related to the currency market.
                       Remember, you should consider world news too and not only news that is directly related to the currency pair(s) you are trading. The values of currencies can be affected by world news too, of course.
Also, make sure that when you do look for sources of news, ensure that you diversify your sources of news. Some sites might be biased and such, so you need to try and stay updated on the entire FX market and on the currency pair(s) you are trading through a variety of different news sources.
The effect that the news can have on the Forex market is probably more significant than you think. This is why many Forex traders adopt news trading strategies. Never underestimate the power of the news in Forex trading and always keep updated - again, it doesn't take a lot of effort to read and interpret the news anyway, so you may as well.
                        In conclusion, news in currency trading is important, regardless of what type of analysis you prefer to carry out and what strategy you use. The news can affect the value of any currency, so it is worth reading up on the news as much as possible. By keeping updated with all the latest and relevant news, from a diverse range of news sources, you will put yourself at a great advantage and will be much more likely to profit and succeed in the currency market.

Forex Trading Strategy Following Spanish

Forex Trading Strategy Following Spanish Bank's Downgrades

LONDON, May 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

As Europe recoils from the Spanish bank downgrade last week - how are you planning to trade the forex markets?

In the following guide, we show you how you can trade across global currencies with forex trading provider City Index.

What is Forex Trading?

The act of trading forex is buying one currency in a pair, for example the Euro in the EUR/USD pair, while simultaneously selling the other (US dollar).

Investors do this with expectations that the cross rate price will rise in value and their profits will rise in live with any increase in that price.

Alternatively, selling a currency pair means that you sell the first currency in the pair - in this example the Euro - while simultaneously buying the second (US dollar).

Investors do this with expectations that the price will fall and their profits rise.

Forex Trading Strategy for Going Short on the EUR/USD

In this example of a forex trading strategy, let's assume that EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.2709/1.2712.

Investors are concerned about the situation in Europe with the ongoing Greek political crisis and news that sixteen Spanish banks had their ratings cut by Moody's - causing shares to plummet across the European markets.

With no resolution in sight to the Greek political crisis till mid-June when a re-election will be held in Greece, investors may expect that the Euro will decline in value against the US dollar - which has often been deemed a safe haven as the most popularly traded currency in the world.

With this in mind you decide to sell (go short) €10,000 on EUR/USD at 1.2709.

In the coming days, you watch the Euro fall against the dollar 109 pips to 1.2600.

To close your trade, you buy back at the new price of 1.2507/1.2600 netting you a profit of $109, i.e. (1.2709 - 1.2600) x 10,000 = $109.

Forex Trading Risks

Consider the above example; had the market moved against you position - i.e. the US dollar had weakened overnight, pushing the value of the Euro against the US Dollar to rise 109 pips instead of down - you'd have lost $109.

Before you start trading forex, it is important you understand the risks involved.


Why Trade Forex with City Index?

Today more and more individual traders are discovering the benefits of derivatives, and many of them are discovering them through a City Index forex trading platform.

As a group, City Index transact in excess of 1.5 million trades every month in over 50 countries, providing access to a wide range of instruments including margined foreign exchange, CFDs and, in the UK, financial spread betting.

In addition, they constantly aim to improve the performance across all their platforms and expand their range of services - including educational tools and resources.

As a result, their clients benefit from innovative trading tools with transparent pricing, competitive spreads, and a high standard of customer support. Visit http://www.cityindex.co.uk for details.

Monday 21 May 2012

Fundamentals of forex

BASICS OF FOREX:

What is Forex?

“Forex” is basically an abbreviation for “Foreign exchange” that is used as a name for international interbank currency market. The new Jamaican currency system which replaced Bretton Woods system, the values of many national currencies were no longer dependent on the gold reserves of that particular country. The laws of supply and demand so typical for market economy started to influence the price thus inevitably leading to a new trend called “floating rate policy”.

Global Forex participants

Forex is a currency exchange market all over the world. It does not have center or branches; it is placed wherever the participants of exchange transactions are. Central state banks, commercial banks, investment foundations, enterprises, private investors, traders and ordinary people are the participants of the Forex market. Exchanging one currency for another, they automatically become direct participants of the Forex currency market.

Forex market volume

Forex has a huge volume in the total transactions in comparison to any other exchange body including the NYSE. A daily summary money turnover in financial year 2010-2011 equals 4 billion dollars. And the number is increasing day by day.

Forex broker

A person requires a Forex broker so that all the possibilities of the currency market would become available. A bank or dealing center (providing possibilities of currency dealing) may act as a broker. As a rule, the conditions are more suitable in a dealing center and registration process is easier, that is the reason why most of the newbies choose exactly DC.

What is a broker

Broker is an intermediary between a trader who wants to earn on currency rate difference and other market participants. After signing in on the web site, a person is offered to download a trading terminal for a regular or mobile trading and to start working. If a person is trading for the first time, he has to study Forex articles and, may be, open a demo account where he can easily test his skills and make sure the currency trading may bring a considerable financial outcome.

Choosing a Forex broker in India

Choosing aForex broker in India, many people in India ask the same question, which one is the best? Hundreds of forum pages are used up, many articles are issued, various rating systems are created and a lot more, but nobody can actually tell who is the best broker because in the end it depends on and individual and his preferences and tastes. So one and the same broker cannot be suitable for everyone and be convenient for all the traders. Although especially for Forex traders in India, LiteForex India has very friendly services and quick transactions for withdrawals and deposits as well as Customer support in Indian languages like Hindi, Gujarati, Marathi and English and soon we will start with Tamil and Malayalam.

HLHB Weekly Update - May 21, 2012

HLHB Trend-Catcher

The last signal from the week prior (signal 10) closed with a 68-pip win at 1.2854 when a new signal formed. However, the valid trades that materialized last week added up in a 76-pip loss.

Here's a quick rundown of how the HLHB Trend-Catcher fared:

1. Long at 1.2854. Stopped out at 1.2804. -50 pips.
2. Short at 1.2804. Trailing stop hit at 1.2731. +73 pips.
3. Long at 1.2743. Stopped out at 1.2693. -50 pips.
4. Short at 1.2709. Closed on new crossover at 1.2739. -30 pips.
5. Long at 1.2739. Closed on new crossover at 1.2724. -15 pips.
6. Short at 1.2724. Trailing stop hit at 1.2716. +8 pips.
7. Invalid signal. RSI was not above 50.
8. Short at 1.2704. Trailing stop hit at 1.2692. +12 pips.
9. Long at 1.2699. Still open...

I'm not too bummed about the dismal result for a few reasons. For one, the last signal is still open and as of this writing, it is up by 96 pips! Secondly, after what seems like forever, little ol' Huck is going out on a date this weekend! How do these things go again? I kid, I kid.

EUR/USD Trade

As you have all probably figured out by now, my EUR/USD trade didn't turn out the way I wanted it to. It didn't lose, but it also didn't triggered. When price fell, I decided to just close my open order. Sadly, this meant that I was left out of a solid short.

There isn't really much to say about my trade except that I could've been a little more aggressive. I could've at least put a small position when price found resistance at the 1.2750 minor psychological level. In any case, I did follow my plan, which makes me feel better.

XOXO,

Huck


Playing the EUR/CAD Downtrend - Trade Closed

Playing the EUR/CAD Downtrend - Trade Closed

         Good morning forex fiends! It was a tough ending for my latest trade idea as risk-off flows came in hot and heavy to close out last week's trading. As per normal behavioral patterns, this spelled trouble for "risk-on" assets like the Canadian Dollar, as well as my EUR/CAD trade.

Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.

On the 60 minute chart above of EUR/CAD, we can see that the pair ticked higher through Thursday and Friday, triggering my second half position order along the way. And for a second, I thought this trade would work out nicely thanks to the boost to the Canadian Dollar, sparked by higher-than-expected CPI readings in Canada on Friday. Unfortunately, risk aversion accelerated throughout the Friday session as currency traders unloaded high-yielding currencies against the safe havens and weaker currencies. This propelled EUR/CAD higher to my stop level of 1.2975, closing out my entire position before the end of the trading week.

1st half: -95 pips
2nd half: -50 pips
Total: -72.5 (avg)/ -1.0% loss

This loss brings my account back slightly below breakeven for the year, and unkindly reminds me that Q2 has been a tough period so far. A few missed entries, and certainly the missed opportunity of catching the recent huge risk-off move has made a big difference in my performance and psyche.

But today is a new day, and as the trading saying goes, "every day is a new chance to start a winning streak." As long as I stay positive and do the work to be ready every week and every day, I know I'll be fine.

That's it for now, and as I mentioned, it's a new week. The big risk-off move may not be done yet as the global story hasn't changed much over the weekend, but it might be time for a relief rally, profit taking, or a short-squeeze. If so, I'll use it as an opportunity to jump into the risk aversion story at hopefully some better prices.

Thanks for checking out my blog and I hope everyone had a great weekend!

Trade Idea: 2012-05-17 04:42 ET

Good morning forex friends! I've decided to close out this trading week by dipping into an arena I'm not too familiar with: currency crosses! Even though it's not in my usual bag of pairs to watch, I think EUR/CAD is a simple play both fundamentally and technically.





Fundamentally, I'm sure by now we all know about the European debt crisis and the recent developments of how Greece may, or may not, leave the euro (if your not up to speed, check out Forex Gump's Piponomics blog for series of articles on the whole mess.) On the other side of the pond we have Canada, whose recent positive economic data, most notably their recent positive jobs data, has made Canada and the Loonie an attractive investment in the short-term. I think these themes will continue to bring sellers into EUR/CAD, at least until we see declining Canadian data and/or a resolution to the entire European debt crisis issue (you probably shouldn't hold your breath on the latter).

Technically, the pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time, and just recently broke through a major support area. Is it a fake out or will the market continue lower? I don't know, but for now I'm going with the trend.

On the 60 minute chart above, it looks like we're getting a short-term pull back to an area of previous support. It may now serve as resistance, so I'll look to scale in short between the current levels and just above the major psychological level, 1.2900. My stop will be a fourth of the weekly ATR from my average price, and my target will be this week's low. Here's what I am going to do:

Short half position EUR/CAD at market (1.2880), stop at 1.2975, pt at 1.2785

Short half position EUR/CAD at 1.2925, stop at 1.2975, pt at 1.2785

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Risk Disclosure.

This trade setup gives me around a 1.5:1 potential return-on-risk if both positions are entered. Of course, with so many different issues around the globe, sentiment can shift on a dime, so be sure to follow our Forex calendar for important upcoming events for both currencies. Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates and adjustments in case we see a sentiment change. Good luck, good trading and thanks for checking out my blog!


Weekly Watch: May 21 to 25, 2012

Weekly Watch: May 21 to 25, 2012

               First up, lemme give some props to NBA superstar Kevin Durant and Chelsea mainstay Didier Drogba! That's what I call coming through in the clutch! Durant's 3-point shot put the Thunder up 3-1 versus the Lakers, while Drogba's penalty shot delivered Chelsea the Champion's League title!

Last week it was all about yen domination, as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY set off for new lows. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP recovered from its recent losses to close a gap from a couple weeks back (thanks for pointing that out in your Daily Chart Art, Big Pippin!). What could be in store for us this week?

Without further ado, here's this week's Weekly Watch!


After bottoming out at around 100.20 last week, EUR/JPY has now made its way back up above the 101.00 level major psychological level (MaPs). I'm thinking that the 102.00 will be a major level to keep an eye on, seeing as how it held as support before breaking down late last week. If price manages to breach this level, then I think 103.00 will be the next resistance area for EUR/JPY.

WO:101.09
Top WATR: 102.36
Bottom WATR: 99.82
PWH: 103.39
PWL: 100.21
Just like EUR/JPY, Guppy broke out of consolidation and promptly dropped 300 pips to set new lows. It's starting to look like we're seeing consolidation again before the bears gear up for another strong down move. If we see a solid candlestick close below the previous week low (PWL), it may be time to start hopping on the long yen bandwagon!

WO:125.21
Top WATR: 126.58
Bottom WATR: 123.84
PWH: 128.90
PWL: 124.65

What a difference a week makes! After it looked like EUR/GBP was just gonna keep melting down the charts, the pair made a sweet comeback last week and is now close to retesting the .8100 MaPs. For now, I'll likely wait for a pullback to the .8050 minor psychological handle (MiPs) as this area has recently generated a lot of interest. Up top, I'll also be waiting to see how price reacts to the top weekly ATR (WATR) as a potential resistance point.


WO: .8074
Top WATR: .8128
Bottom WATR: .8020
PWH: .8080
PWL: .7950



Forex - GBP/USD holds gains but upside limited

Forex - GBP/USD holds gains but upside limited

Forex pros - The pound held gains against the broadly weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday, but the upside was limited as markets remained cautious ahead of an emergency summit of European Union leaders later in the week.

GBP/USD hit 1.6160 during European afternoon trade, the pair's highest since July 15; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6122, gaining 0.41%.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.6004, Monday's low and short-term resistance at 1.6193, the high of July 14 and a three-week high.

Market sentiment was boosted by a rebound in equities, following sharp falls on Monday and as yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds retreated slightly after rising sharply in the previous session amid fears over sovereign debt contagion.

Meanwhile, euro zone leaders were to meet in Brussels attempt to finalize a second EUR110 billion bailout for Greece and discuss the overall financial stability of the single currency bloc.

The pound is seen as particularly vulnerable to the debt crisis in the euro zone, due to the exposure of British lenders to euro zone government debt and because of the U.K.'s close trade ties with the euro zone.

Elsewhere, the pound dipped against the euro, with EUR/GBP inching up 0.06% to hit 0.8794.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. was to publish government data on building permits and housing starts.


Forex Flash

We expect CAD to outperform – Wells Fargo

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - A weak US Dollar and the statement of the Bank of Canada pushed USD/CAD to the downside and currently trades below 0.9500. "While rates were left unchanged as expected, the statement arguably hinted at a shift in a more hawkish direction, suggesting the Bank of Canada could resume its interest rate tightening soon. This contrasts with today's minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia that highlighted a switch to a more neutral stance," wrote Vassili Serebriakov, Currency Strategist at Wells Fargo on the daily report.

Vassili pointed out that they expect the Loonie to outperform in the coming months "and see scope for a retest of its 2007 highs against the US dollar."

Forex: AUD/USD teases 1.0700 resistance

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD today has been steadily recovering from yesterday´s low of 1.0560, reaching just underneath the technical resistance in 1.0700 despite being unable to break above so far. The pair currently trades consolidated around 1.0680 ahead of the North American session which should bring some further direction.

The Kshitij Consultancy Services team informs: "Aussie has risen above the 55-DMA (1.0649) and 21-DMA (1.0654) Resistances. A test of 1.0700 looks likley in the coming sessions and a strong break above 1.0700 would take the pair further up towards 1.0780. While 1.0700 holds, we might see a dip to 1.0600 once again."

They add: "Overall the pair is exepected to retain its 1.0500-800 sideways range and we will have to wait for a breakout of this range to get clear idea on the further direction of move."



Forex - USD/CHF hits 4-day high as risk aversion eases

Forex - USD/CHF hits 4-day high as risk aversion eases

 Forex pros - The U.S. dollar rose to a four-day high against the Swiss franc on Tuesday, as risk aversion eased after a rebound in equities bolstered market sentiment and curbed safe haven demand.

USD / CHF hit 0.8234 during European late morning trade, the pair's highest since July 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8198, gaining 0.29%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8079, the low of July 14 and the pair's all-time low and resistance at 0.8330, the high of July 13.

Investors remained wary amid concerns over sovereign debt contagion to Italy and Spain from Greece, after Monday saw Italian and Spanish 10-year bond yields advance above 6% and their spreads over benchmark German bonds rise to euro-lifetime highs.

Later in the week, euro zone leaders were to meet in Brussels to discuss a second bailout for Greece and the overall financial stability of the single currency bloc.


The Swissie was also lower against the euro, with EUR/CHF rallying 0.81% to hit 1.1631.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. was to publish government data on building permits and housing starts.



The Value of Trade Balance

The Value of Trade Balance to Local Economy

               The balance of trade also referred as trade balance, which sometimes is symbolized as NX, is the difference of the monetary value of imports and exports in one economy in a given period of time. The balance of trade is considered the biggest part of a country’s balance of payments.

        Imports, domestic spending, foreign aid, and investment abroad are called debit items while credit items includes exports, foreign investments in domestic economy and foreign spending in domestic economy.

A trade surplus is a positive balance of trade which is consists of more exporting than importing. A trade deficit is the negative balance of trade or sometimes called a trade gap. The trade balance can sometimes be divided as services balance and goods balance just like in the United Kingdom which they use the terms invisible and visible balance.

The balance of trade is a part of current account which includes transactions that includes income derived from international investment and international aid. Thus, if the current account comes as a surplus then the nation’s international net asset increases also while deficit will decrease the international net asset.

A good trade surplus is achieved when a country exports products more than buying imported goods. A trade deficit is eventually experience as a result of the opposite of a trade surplus. The trade balance is alike to the difference of a country's output and the domestic demand. These factors may affect the trade balance: prices of goods manufactured, taxes and tariffs, trade agreements, business cycle (home or abroad), and exchange rates.

The trade balance is different in many business cycles. For instance, export growth like oil and industrial goods which improves when there is economic expansion.

In developed countries like; Japan, China and Germany usually run at trade surpluses in which they experience a higher savings rate. Around the world there are different natural resources which a country may have for instance, countries from the coastal regions are major producers of fish, Canada can be a major producer of lumber because of its huge forests while in the Middle East, has the most oil reserves.

International trade is important so in order to sustain the balance of trade. A country should be totally self sufficient without international trade. Through international trades, each country will have the opportunity to produce specialize goods efficiently. In relation, when a nation specializes in producing these goods, the total production increases instead of trying to be self sufficient. Nations will benefit from international trades and also meets their needs. Generally, nations will trade to other nations when they gain from the trade. But the gains are not usually equal in terms of benefits and profit.

What is a Transaction Cost

What is a Transaction Cost and How to Calculate It?

              In economics, transaction costs are the rate acquired when making an economic exchange. This costs incurred when buying or selling securities or stocks. This is also referred as transaction fees. Transaction costs also comprise of brokers’ commissions ad spreads (difference between the price that the dealer paid for a security and the price it may be sold. This is what the broker or bank produce for being a middleman in a transaction.

               For instance, most people when buying or selling a security or stock, pays a commission to their broker and that commission can be considered as the fee or transaction cost for doing that stock deal. When evaluating a potential transaction, it is crucial to think about these costs that might prove significant. Mostly, in financial markets, the initial cost for these transactions is commission which is paid to brokers upon trade execution. This costs becomes increasingly important the shorter the holding time of an investment.

                  Many market models disregard transactional costs, presumptuous instead those markets are non resistant. While this thought is invalid, for many applications such costs are low enough that they can be disregarded. The lesser the cost for a transaction, the more effective and competent a market is said to be. The Foreign exchange market and stock market have lower costs for such transactions of any major asset class.

                It is considered to be much more cost- efficient to trade in Forex in terms of both commissions and transaction fees. An online website for example charges no fees or commissions and at the same time offer traders an access to all relevant market information and trading tools. On the contrary, online stock trade commission ranges from $7.95 - $ 29.95 per trade and up to $100 or more per trade with full service brokers.

Another thing to consider, which is an important point is the width of the bid / ask spread. Regardless of the deal size, foreign exchange dealing spreads are normally or common in 3-4 pips (anyway a pip is .0001 US cents) in the major currencies. Generally, the width of the spread in a foreign exchange market transaction is less than one tenth (1/10) that of a stock transaction, which could contain a .125 or one eight (1/8) wide spread.

                Since transaction costs are paid via bid/ask spread, there has to be no charges to trade or hidden fees. There are instances that there would be extra charges asked by good brokers for some non compulsory services or access to particular reports. A smaller spread is visibly better. Since brokers are taking the other side of all the customer trades, brokers gain profit by making the spread between the bid and offer prices. You may find that find spreads vary by broker.

             In order to be successful in trading on the foreign exchange market, you have to find a good broker.

How Interest Rates Play a Role

How Interest Rates Play a Role in the Currency Markets

                        Interest rates play the foremost important role in moving the prices of currencies in the Forex market. As the institutions that set interest rates, central banks are therefore the most influential factors. Interest rates dictate flows of investment. Since the currencies are representations of a country’s economy, differences in interest rates affect the relative worth of currencies in relation to one another. When central banks change interest rates they cause the Forex market to experience movement and volatility. In the realm of Forex trading, accurate speculation of central banks’ actions can enhance the trader's chances for a successful trade.

                  An increase in interest rates encourages traders to invest within that market and causes the demand for the currency to rise. As demand rises, the currency becomes scarcer and consequently more valuable. Investors are drawn to the currency, causing it to appreciate, because they will gain a higher yield on their investments, as in the Jane example. In order to purchase the country's assets (stocks or bonds), Jane will have to convert her domestic currency to the target country's currency also increasing demand. Conversely, a fall in interest rates discourage investors from purchasing assets in that particular economy, as the return on their investment is now smaller. The economy's currency will depreciate as a result of the weaker demand.

Saturday 19 May 2012

Waiting For Break of Trend Line on EUR/AUD

Waiting For Break of Trend Line on EUR/AUD

One reason why I love trading the cross-currency pairs is because it gives me plenty of trading opportunities to choose from! If I have a short euro bias, I'm not forced to stick to just EUR/JPY - I can choose to go short on other euro pairs as long as a valid setup emerges!

Why am I bearish on the euro? Well, as I said in my last EUR/JPY trade, it's all about politics right now baby!

The big news in the market right now is that our buddies over at Greece can't just get along. Because the New Democracy, Syriza, and Socialist parties couldn't form a coalition government, the Greek government decided that they would be better off having another election in June.

This puts Greece in a rather dangerous situation, as the country won't be able to receive any bailout funds from the EU and IMF. Take note that Greece has no more moolah in its vaults and without aid, it will run out of money by July.

As expected, this has been taking its toll on the euro, which is why the shared currency has struggled against other major currencies.

This brings me to my trade setup on EUR/AUD.

The pair has been respecting a long-term rising trend line for quite some time now, but seeing as how the outlook for the euro is looking rather dim, I have a feeling that the trend line could break soon.

For now, I'm going to be patient and wait for a BREAK of the trend line before establishing my short position. I think if price breaks below the recent support level at 1.2785, we could see a smooth ride back down to the former area of interest around 1.2600.

Here's my master plan:

Sell stop order at 1.2760, stop loss at 1.2830, take profit at 1.2600.

I think this should give my trade ample breathing space should we see any choppy moves. Also, I think my profit target is well-placed, and if it gets hit, this trade will give me a sweet reward-to-risk ratio of just over 2:1. Lastly, I'll be risking 0.50% of my account on this trade.

You fellas willing to join me on this trade?

EUR/USD: Selling on a Pullback

EUR/USD: Selling on a Pullback

          Last week, I rode the downtrend on GBP/USD. This time, I'm going to try out EUR/USD. I hope I'm not too late! As you can see, the pair seems to be starting to retrace. It had hit a bottom just below 1.2700 and then suddenly surged higher. To me, this is a good time to consider selling, as I may get in at a good price!

I'm hoping to jump in somewhere between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. I have set a limit sell tentatively at 1.2760. I could still change it depending on how price action plays out in the next couple of hours though. I'm also keeping a close eye on Stochastic.

As for my stop, I've placed it 70 pips away just to give my trade enough room to breathe. I'll ultimately be aiming for new lows but I could close early if price stalls at 1.2700.

Fundamentally, Europe's debt crisis situation still looks far from promising. In fact, according to Pip Diddy, the ECB just stopped providing liquidity to some very undercapitalized Greek banks yesterday. Yikes!

It seems to me that with each passing day, the prospect of a Grexit becomes more and more real as bad news from the region pop out one after another. This is why I'm still bearish on the euro.

To recap, here's my trade idea:

Sell at 1.2760, SL at 1.2830, PT to be determined, 1% risk. (Risk disclosure.)

XOXO,

Read more: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/loonie-adventures/eurusd-selling-on-a-pullback.html#ixzz1vOF0Ux3f

Playing the EUR/CAD Downtrend

Playing the EUR/CAD Downtrend

          Good morning forex friends! I've decided to close out this trading week by dipping into an arena I'm not too familiar with: currency crosses! Even though it's not in my usual bag of pairs to watch, I think EUR/CAD is a simple play both fundamentally and technically.

Before you move on, for those who are not familiar with my framework, signals, setups, or acronyms, please visit my discretionary trading framework blog.

Fundamentally, I'm sure by now we all know about the European debt crisis and the recent developments of how Greece may, or may not, leave the euro (if your not up to speed, check out Forex Gump's Piponomics blog for series of articles on the whole mess.) On the other side of the pond we have Canada, whose recent positive economic data, most notably their recent positive jobs data, has made Canada and the Loonie an attractive investment in the short-term. I think these themes will continue to bring sellers into EUR/CAD, at least until we see declining Canadian data and/or a resolution to the entire European debt crisis issue (you probably shouldn't hold your breath on the latter).

Technically, the pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time, and just recently broke through a major support area. Is it a fake out or will the market continue lower? I don't know, but for now I'm going with the trend.

On the 60 minute chart above, it looks like we're getting a short-term pull back to an area of previous support. It may now serve as resistance, so I'll look to scale in short between the current levels and just above the major psychological level, 1.2900. My stop will be a fourth of the weekly ATR from my average price, and my target will be this week's low. Here's what I am going to do:

Short half position EUR/CAD at market (1.2880), stop at 1.2975, pt at 1.2785

Short half position EUR/CAD at 1.2925, stop at 1.2975, pt at 1.2785

Remember to never risk more than 1% of a trading account on any single trade. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Risk Disclosure.

This trade setup gives me around a 1.5:1 potential return-on-risk if both positions are entered. Of course, with so many different issues around the globe, sentiment can shift on a dime, so be sure to follow our Forex calendar for important upcoming events for both currencies. Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates and adjustments in case we see a sentiment change. Good luck, good trading and thanks for checking out my blog!


NZD/USD: Eyes on the Trend Line - Missed It Again!

NZD/USD: Eyes on the Trend Line - Missed It Again!

Trade Canceled: 2012-05-18 1:50

         Ugh, I can't believe I missed this setup! Yesterday we talked about how NZD/USD might suffer more losses. Unfortunately, the pair didn't rise enough to hit my entry order.

NZD/USD remained on a tight 50-pip range for most of the day yesterday despite the relatively sharper losses that occurred in European currencies. It found resistance at the .7680 area, which is a few pips below my .7700 short order.

Then, just when I was thinking of shorting at a retest of the range's resistance, the pair went on its merry way down a couple of hours ago as overall risk aversion was fueled by successive downgrades, mixed U.S. data, and weak Chinese data. NZD/USD broke below its .7630 support and is currently trading around the .7550 area.

Where have I gone wrong on this trade? Was I too picky with my entry point? A couple of my trader friends have pointed out that I could've also jumped in the bear party and just placed my stop above the range.

What do you think? How could I have played this trade better? As always, your thoughts are most welcome!

Trade Idea: 2012-05-17 2:17

My, my! It looks like the trends are really strong these days! Since I'm thinking the trend will still be my friend, I'm looking at this potential short on NZD/USD.

There's a falling trend line on NZD/USD's 1-hour chart that extends all the way back to the last week of April so I'm hoping to catch the retest of this resistance level. I used my handy-dandy Fibonacci retracement tool to figure out where I should enter, and I noticed that the .7700 major psychological handle is close to the 38.2% and 50% levels.

However, I did note that Stochastic is still pointing upwards, which means that Kiwi bulls could push this pair further up. Don't worry, I'll be waiting for this oscillator to reach the overbought zone and turn down before entering this trade. Once in this trade, I'll set my stop just above this week's top WATR and my target at the recent low of .7625.

As for fundamentals and risk sentiment, I do believe that the downbeat outlook for the markets could carry on, at least for the next couple of days. Although Greece already announced that they'd be having their elections next week, market participants seem to be pricing in the possibility of a Grexit later on.

Here's what I'm planning to do:

Short NZD/USD at .7700, stop loss at .7775, PT at .7625.

I'll be risking 0.5% of my account on this short-term trade and, if you're thinking of joining me, make sure you read our risk disclosure first.

I'd love to hear what you think of this setup so don't be shy to share your thoughts!




3 Ways to Expand Your Trading Skills

3 Ways to Expand Your Trading

              I have previously talked about niche trading and how mastering a particular trading strategy can help you build your account.

But as Forex Gump always says, all good things must come to an end. Your trading approach may work out well for a few weeks, months, or heck, even years! However, I'm willing to bet my brand spankin' new Sony SmartWatch that it won't last forever for the simple fact that market forces constantly change.

If you want to become a big baller in the unforgiving world of forex trading, you're gonna need more than one or two trading tricks up your sleeve. You not only have to know your strategies like the back of your hand, but you also have to be aware of other approaches that could land you pips.

In order to sustain your edge, you need to come up with fresh ideas. In trading, this could take the form of diversifying your skills. Don't worry, you don't have to drift too far from the skills that you already have. Sometimes all you need are a few tweaks in your habits to find new opportunities.

Here are three tips to get you started:

1. Look at other time frames

Just because the School of Pipsology's personality quizzes tell you that you're day trader doesn't mean that you have to stick to the shorter time frames all the time. Some hard core day traders I know find trades by checking out longer time frames for overall direction. Meanwhile, swing and position traders usually learn about significant levels and adding positions from day trading techniques.

2. Try trading other pairs

Think you've mastered the behavior of a currency? Why not step it up by trading it against other currencies? For example, if you're the AUD/USD expert among your peers, you can try looking at AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD, or even other comdoll pairs for trade setups. This way you're maximizing your ability to predict the Aussie's price action, but your trade ideas aren't limited to a couple of currency pairs.
3. Be open to other strategies

Expanding your trading skills ultimately boils down to you being open to new strategies. Again, you don't have to veer far from the skills that you already have.

If you're a system trader and you can spot confluences even in your sleep, then it wouldn't hurt to try out other systems that have similar concepts. In fact, Robopip has a monthly Best Forex Trading System contest dedicated for traders looking for new trading systems.

Discretionary traders also have a lot of room for new ideas and trading opportunities. Think you're good at spotting trends? Level it up by using the STA strategy or the HLHB Trend-Catcher system!

If you're used to trading ranges and you know when they're about to break out, then maybe you could give breakout trading a shot. You can also play around with other skills like good position sizing, trading fakeouts, and even trading a particular indicator.

The point of the exercise is for you to acquire new weapons in your trading arsenal. Having an edge in trading is always a good thing, but you need to develop fresh sources of edge to sustain your advantage.